Germany’s calculations of the Ukraine crisis…a dual role between the party and the mediator

These “complex calculations” were reflected in the German position on the issue of arming Kiev, after Berlin had contented itself with sending 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine, while on the other hand, Ukraine received strategic equipment and weapons from Washington and other European countries. At the same time, Germany threatens the Russian side with heavy costs in the event of an invasion of Ukraine.

Berlin plays a pivotal role in the Kiev crisis, as it is viewed as one of the parties affected by the Russian position, and at the same time it can be relied upon to play the role of mediator. This may be one of the reasons for Berlin’s refusal to arm Ukraine, in conjunction with the “strict restrictions” imposed by the German statute on arms exports, especially to conflict areas, which was recently reiterated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in an interview with the Washington Post. During which he stated that these restrictions prevent the arming of Ukraine, even the previous government (led by Merkel) also adhered to these restrictions.

legal restrictions

Article 26 of the German Constitution (under the title Securing International Peace) in its second paragraph stipulates that weapons designed for war may not be manufactured, transferred or marketed except with the permission of the Federal Government.

Four main factors emerge behind the German position, which is driven by its complex calculations, the first of which is the restrictions imposed by the War Weapons Control Law with its historical background, and the second of these factors is related to the strategy that encapsulates the performance of German diplomacy in tending towards “peaceful solutions” to external crises rather than armed conflicts.

In addition to the third factor related to Berlin’s attempt – through the carrot and stick policy – to present itself as a mediator to solve the crisis. Finally, the fourth factor is related to the economic interests of Germany and the economic relations that it and Moscow have, both with regard to the Russian gas file and its links to the interests of German companies.

negotiating solutions

International relations expert Akram Hosam talks, in exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia”, about the complex situation for Germany regarding the Ukraine crisis.

Hossam points out that “Germany plays both roles… It is a party to the Ukraine crisis as a member of NATO and the headquarters of the American European Command, and as the largest European power in NATO at the current economic, political and strategic levels… The evidence of its being a party is also the statements of the German Chancellor When visiting the United States, in which he clearly stated that Russia will pay a heavy price if it decides to invade Ukraine, and the mediator often does not interfere in the conflict in this way.

And he continues: “But at the same time, the complex calculations of the German position make the discussion focus on the possibility that Germany will have a role in calming the crisis (a role closer to calm, not mediation), especially as it is a member of the Normandy Group with Russia, Ukraine and France,” explaining that the German role In the Ukraine crisis under Merkel, it was closer to mediation, but the situation changed under Chancellor Schulz and in light of the changes in the political system in Berlin.

intrinsic motives

At the same time, the international relations expert points out that these reasons are reflected in the position on the issue of arming Ukraine. This is because “part of the German position regarding the opposition to arming Kiev is mainly related to the German interior, as a result of parties’ rejection of this policy, with more emphasis on human rights files.”

At the same time, he points out that there are pressure groups inside Germany that adopt the Russian point of view, and they are represented by organizations, groups and elites that are currently within the German decision-making circle.

At the same time, the international relations expert highlights that what strengthens the German position regarding armament is “the German vision of the danger of the conflict itself on Germany and Europe in general, and the danger of arming Ukraine, with the possibility that this will encourage the Ukrainian government to cling to the position, at a time when the strategic line appears The current German government is based on trying to bring the two sides to the negotiating table through carefully calculated efforts.”

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